President Trump proposed radical changes to student loans in his FY 2018 education budget. Then nothing happened. Now in 2019, President Trump proposed basically the exact same thing for the fiscal year 2020 education budget. There are three major parts to the plan relevant to student loan borrowers, and his 2020 demands are almost identical to his proposals from a couple years ago.
- Trump wants to repeal PSLF for new borrowers who have not yet enrolled in school
- He would eliminate Subsidized and Perkins student loans
- The Trump administration would like to replace all income driven repayment programs with a single 30 year income driven plan. Forgiveness would happen after 30 years for debt from grad school and 15 years for undergrad debt.
Borrowers who don’t follow this blog predictably freaked out when the media announced this. Realistically, you don’t have much to worry about from the Trump budget proposal. President Obama suggested capping PSLF at only $57,500 for the 2015 budget. His own party resisted and the measure died.
Now we have split control of Congress, and President Trump just decided to repeat his administration’s desires for higher education policy without much change. Senate Republicans are offering far more generous repayment terms.
We know that House Democrats prefer the Aim Higher Act, which would drastically expand and protect PSLF. House Republicans preferred the now defunct Prosper Act, which would have repealed PSLF for new borrowers. The Democratic proposal is the one that’s more relevant as Congress debates reauthorizing the Higher Education Act (HEA).
The Senate proposal for student loan reform runs through the Republican party, and specifically Senator Lamar Alexander, who chairs the HELP committee (Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions). Sen. Alexander will retire in 2020, raising the probability a HEA bill actually happens.
That said, we have a long history now of Congress and the President being far apart on student loan proposals. With such deep disagreement, the Trump education budget has virtually no chance of passing, but it informs how to handle loans now.
What Does Trump’s Education Budget Mean for PSLF?
Nobody should be freaking out. As I mentioned, President Obama sought to effectively repeal PSLF for graduate students in 2015 by capping the benefit at $57,500. That failed because Congress didn’t want that to happen.
Republican PSLF repeal proposals have grandfathered in current borrowers in the past. Very reasonable senators such as Lamar Alexander of TN, the chair of the Senate Education committee, would probably take that approach.
I’ve written what I think about Trump repealing PSLF before, and I stand by what I wrote. I think the probability of PSLF repeal is getting lower every year as more and more borrowers depend on it. Perhaps I’d place the odds at 90% that current borrowers will get to use PSLF.
Read More: What to do if you’re worried about Trump repealing PSLF
What About Trump’s Proposed Repeal of PAYE, REPAYE, and IBR?
Republicans have generally favored higher payments than Democrats. Republicans want a higher payment than 10% of income. Democrats like the 10% number, but they want it to be higher for high income borrowers. Essentially they want a slightly progressive income driven repayment regime for student loans based on the Aim Higher Act.
Trump wants to create two different rules depending on if your loans are from undergrad or grad programs. For undergrads, he creates a very generous 12.5% of income program that allows for forgiveness in 15 years. That’s the program I model in my student loan calculator.
However, he creates a shockingly worse program in his proposal for graduate school level professionals. He would replace all five income driven repayment options (REPAYE, PAYE, old IBR, ICR, and new IBR) with a single Trump student loan repayment plan. Keep in mind, the proposal is not fleshed out at all. If Trump’s proposal eliminated the tax bomb, it could very well be better for many borrowers.
The New “30 Year IBR Plan” Would Hurt Some Grad Degree Professionals
Trump’s income based repayment plan would require payments for 30 years until forgiveness for grad school loans. Very likely, it would not include any interest subsidies either. This income driven option could remove the existing repayment programs and force current borrowers into a less advantageous option. However, I view it as far more likely that if a payment plan was worse for the majority, you’d be allowed to remain in PAYE and REPAYE.
The only scenario I see that could result in borrowers being forced into a new payment plan would be if it was better for the majority of borrowers, even though it might be worse for others. For example, if Congress passed a plan that required you to pay 10% of your income for 20 years, I could see them compelling borrowers to use it instead of REPAYE. Borrowers who benefit from interest subsidies might not anymore, and more people could be driven to refinancing.
This is all hypothetical of course. Grandfathering is highly likely with student loan reform because there’s just simply too many moving pieces at this point to easily change things.
The only positive with the Trump plan is that the payment would be 12.5% of discretionary income instead of 15% as with IBR. However, it’s still higher than the 10% currently required under REPAYE and PAYE.
Again, with the current Congress this budget proposal is dead on arrival. Congress has to pass laws surrounding appropriations and this is Trump’s repetition of his desires.
The real fight will be over the Higher Education Act re-authorization. This does show the administration’s desire to massively reduce the government’s role in the student loan marketplace, but it’s been out there for a long time.
Trump’s Education Budget Would Make Private Refinancing a Lot More Attractive
Student Loan Planner helps clients in 1 on 1 consults come up with a plan for their student debt. That often means helping them get interest subsidies with the REPAYE plan until the debt to income ratio looks good enough to refinance to a lower interest rate long term.
If REPAYE didn’t exist and we had only a 30 year version of IBR from the Trump education budget to choose from, staying on the federal loan system for high income borrowers becomes a lot less attractive.
I estimate a majority of physicians who graduated in the last five years are working towards loan forgiveness under PSLF. If Trump repealed PSLF, then this group would all need to look towards private refinancing instead.
Trump and his budget officials assume that this change in student loan rules would bring in a lot of profit for the government. However, I disagree strongly. Why stay on 30 year IBR paying 7% interest when you could refinance your student loans down to 5%?
The answer is that only those individuals with very high debt to income ratios would go for student loan forgiveness under this scenario. That means the marginal “should they refinance or not?” discussions would lean towards refinancing.
There’s a Lot We Have Yet to Learn, but I’d Contact Your Congressional Representatives
If you’re worried, get involved. For current borrowers, this budget proposal means nothing to you. If you have yet to go to grad school and would be depending on PAYE, REPAYE, or PSLF to make your student loans manageable, the Trump education budget puts your finances at risk.
Congress gets the final say in this matter, so contact your Congressperson and both Senators if these programs are important to you. Mention how high student debt is, and how it’s a top issue for you that will decide how you vote. That’s what I would do if I owed a lot of debt relative to my income.
My Takeaways for Student Loans from the 2020 Trump Education Budget
It’s clear that Trump wants out of heavy government involvement in student loans.
His approach is aggressive, but Congress is still a formidable roadblock. There are a lot of high income high education borrowers such as yourself that depend on these government income driven repayment and forgiveness programs to feel comfortable buying a house, starting a family, and more.
Worrying over proposed student loan changes won’t help, and Trump will not be able to accomplish his proposal because of House Democrats. My advice to clients would be use the programs that exist and change course if it comes to that. If you abandoned PSLF in 2015 when President Obama proposed a low cap, you lost out on 4 years of credit towards highly likely tax free forgiveness.
No matter what Trump does with student loans, there are still going to be ways to save money. If you have to go for private sector loan forgiveness, save the max for retirement. If your debt to income ratio is below 1.5, then look into private refinancing and just getting rid of the debt. Working at a not for profit of government employer? Act like PSLF is going to be around and prepare like it’s not by saving in a side investment account.
We Can Help Navigate Student Loan Uncertainty in Washington
Regardless of what Trump’s trying to do with student loans, our job is to help you come up with a plan to pay them back.
Student Loan Planner makes money through flat fee student loan consultations, and we’ve consulted on hundreds of millions in student debt for thousands of clients. We’d be honored to help you too.
Share your thoughts about Trump’s education budget proposal below in the comments.
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Jay says
May 18, 2017 at 1:17 pmCan you please explain the last statement in the article recommending saving in a side investment account in case PSLF goes away? Would the purpose of this be to pay off the loan? Other reasons?
Travis says
May 18, 2017 at 2:36 pmA side savings account is a hedge. So if you are uncertain about PSLF going away, you put a probability on that. Maybe it’s 50/50. Say your PSLF savings would be $200,000. That’s a big amount to just give up on, but you also want to make sure you’re able to refinance to a lower interest rate and pay it back fast is PSLF repeal is successful. That’s the purpose of a side account. You want to have a big chunk of money ready to go in case PSLF gets repealed and your only option is paydown. That said, you also don’t want to pay that money into your loans bc what if PSLF stays? That’s the current strategy I’m recommending to clients
Christy says
May 18, 2017 at 9:49 pmWhat programs are most at risk? I’m using REPAYE to pay back my loans on PSLF, will I lose both?
Travis says
May 18, 2017 at 9:53 pmI think the income driven repayments are definitely more at risk than PSLF. REPAYE and PAYE are executive orders, and could relatively easily be changed. Contrast that with PSLF, which is an actual act of Congress. That means you could see a scenario where Trump consolidates the income driven repayment plans but Congress blocks him from repealing PSLF, which means you would make payments on whatever the new Trump plan is for PSLF
Jimmy says
May 18, 2017 at 9:51 pmWhat are the chances all this actually happens? Trump is in a lot of trouble right now and I feel like this kind of proposal isn’t going anywhere with all the investigations going on
Travis says
May 18, 2017 at 9:55 pmIt’s true that his legislative priorities are probably going to take a back seat for the next few months, but I view this as a major effort to try to restrict federal student loan involvement. I think we’re at least 6 months out from any changes actually taking place. I think it’s maybe 50/50 that we see income driven repayment programs get consolidated and 75/25 that PSLF borrowers get grandfathered in like I mentioned in the article
Jeff says
May 22, 2017 at 4:52 amThis is the main reason for people not to rely on big government for help. Remember it and the schools are the ones who created this mess. And there is certainly no reason for the government to want to bail everyone out. Last I heard student loans are one of just 3 government programs turning a profit, and it’s a sizable one at that. And for the so-called “higher-earning professionals” to get bailed out would create an uproar in the country over the perception of healthcare professionals as rich folks. If anything, expect the healthcare folks to remain t[on the hook indefinitely whoile the “poorer” folks and the ones with expensive fine art degrees to get bailed out first, if at all.
As with anything, government involvement in education has royally fu*ked up the system. If they can repeal Obamacare (at least it’s getting through the house) why can’t they do the same to pslf, ibr, and repaye? These are even easier to revise and amend.
Travis says
May 22, 2017 at 5:03 pmPSLF would be the hardest to change because it’s an act of Congress and some argue the government obligated itself by adding PSLF to the loan promissory notes of borrowers under the Direct loan program. However, REPAYE and PAYE could easily be changed. After all, they’re executive orders subject to the whims of who is in office.
The loan program doesn’t make the kind of actual profit that budget statements claim that it does. They’re using cash based and not accrual based accounting, and their assumptions are wildly optimistic. Furthermore, the Dept of Ed doesn’t account for the fact that many of these loans will be heavily subsidized when people pay a fraction of what they owe in taxes on the forgiven balance, if anything at all.
If possible, I do prefer getting clients set up on a path to full repayment. However if they’re going for PSLF, then they need to have a hedge strategy set up.
Jeff says
May 23, 2017 at 2:15 amYou should do a financial analysis on say a dentist working in pslf vs one in private industry and see who comes out on top assuming the one in private attempts to pay it off in 10 pslf. Pslf shouldn’t be taken lightly because you are often sent to areas in the middle of nowhere and the salary quite abysmal. Either way, I think the current crop of new dentists are f**ked for a long time. Makes me glad I finally paid off all of my loans this week and I don’t need to deal with the subject anymore except in discussion.
Travis says
May 23, 2017 at 3:18 amThe private sector dentist is going to come out on top in most cases, but only if they’re very entrepreneurial, willing to work hard, hire consultants and marketing folks, practice in a good area, etc.
Awesome about being debt free. That’s my goal is to help people get there if they aren’t already.
One issue is that physicians can practice for 3-5 years as an attending post graduation and get this huge financial windfall. So moving towards equality in treatment among healthcare providers will probably happen sooner rather than later.
The Vigilante says
May 25, 2017 at 10:20 pmI agree wholeheartedly with everything you said in this comment, with one little tiny caveat as an attorney.
While I am fairly confident in the contractual argument that the government obligated itself to loan forgiveness through the promissory note, I would be obligated to do much more research before recommending any course of action to a client based on that assumption. Primarily, I’d need to try to confirm whether the entity that made that promise is also the entity in control of such programs and funding. I’ll copy and paste from a comment I wrote on Biglaw Investor some time ago about the same topic:
That’s sort of operating under the false assumption that the federal government is one massive entity that issues student loans, writes the tax code, forgives debts, and places limits on debt forgiveness. That’s just not true. So, I’m not sure whether the entity that holds the promissory note seemingly guaranteeing that the remaining balance will be forgiven is an entity that can throw up it’s hands at the end and say “Hey, it’s the IRS’s fault that it’s a taxable event now! Sorry!” or “Hey, it’s Congress’s fault that you’re entire balance can’t be forgiven anymore. Sorry!”
Travis says
May 27, 2017 at 1:13 amTrue that’s why I operate on an expected value framework. I set up a hedge w taxable savings to protect against pslf repeal while optimizing the steps that will maximize the forgiveness benefit if it happens. It’s the only way to deal with uncertainty as a former bond trader you gotta hedge
Robert says
June 26, 2017 at 5:19 pmHello,
Heres the my situation,
I went to ITT Technical Institute and filed for defense to repayment back in October 2016 and am waiting for a decision. My total debt is around 60k.
I am need to purchase ma different a home as my family size is now 4 and in our area we cant get anything under 180k for a home. We make together 70k a year and are making 62k off the sale of our home.
Would you put 20% down on the home and rest in the savings (roughly 25k) while we wait to see if we get forgiven and see what Nancy Devos decides and congress figures out. Right now we are on a Repayee.
Or do we pay a higher mortgage put 5% down and put the rest into the student loans that could possibly be forgiven (this would put us in a very tight spot with money however)
Thoughts?
Thank you
Travis says
June 27, 2017 at 1:32 amITT Tech is one of the schools that defrauded their students and they’re supposed to forgive the debt that you incurred while you were there. So I certainly wouldn’t put anything into the loans until you get word on what they’re going to do about it. I don’t specialize in that part of student loans so I’d contact someone like The Boston Student Loan Lawyer and ask about why you haven’t received forgiveness yet since it’s ITT Tech debt.
sandy rabaut says
December 11, 2018 at 12:44 pmI’ve read other reports that REPAYE was from an executive order, but that PAYE was not; hence, repeal of PAYE would need to go through Congress. Your article states that both are executive orders. Please confirm which account is accurate. Thank you.
Travis Hornsby says
December 11, 2018 at 6:07 pmSure the origination of PAYE was an act of Congress but it’s specific creation was an executive order from Pres. Obama during the 2012 campaign. Congress authorized the program but the agencies hadn’t issued the rules yet so the President got ahead of that but didnt have the full authority hence the limits on Oct 2007 and Oct 2011 to make it fit within the rules passed. REPAYE is more of a pure executive order. In reality, REPAYE now is far more important than PAYE is because of adoption rates. It will be hard to cancel those payment plans.
Paige says
March 12, 2019 at 2:01 pmTo be clear, grad loans taken out before July 2020 will still be eligible for PAYE/REPAYE?
I’m currently a 2nd year dental student, so I’ll be taking out 2 more federal loans before I graduate. The wording in the budget was hard to understand. Would those 2 new loans have to be under Trump’s new IBR (if approved) or could they be grandfathered into REPAYE/PAYE as well?
Travis Hornsby says
March 12, 2019 at 2:43 pmThey would likely be grandfathered if it passes, but since it won’t, I’d look to the house and senate bills that will come out of committee in the coming months for clues.
Troy says
April 10, 2019 at 10:16 amHere’s my question. If they do successfully roll all the income based repayment plans into one, would that only be for new loans? If not, would they maintain the accrued but not capitalized status of my interest on my current IBR loan? If they forced me into a new program and capitalized that interest, the interest I am accruing on my loan would go sky high! They did that to me once. They were about to change my servicer back when DOE actually did the servicing. They sent me a notice I needed to recertify for the year. Because of a computer glitch evidently, the next day they threw me into the standard payment plan and capitalized almost $8000 in interest. I never could get them to understand and fix it. So, are there any plans in the talking stage that would take away discharge of loans completely? I can handle the 30 year wait, but I don’t want them to take away that option altogether.
Travis Hornsby says
April 10, 2019 at 1:15 pmRight now it’s still too early to tell, though expert consensus is that they would only apply changes to new loans.