Why Aren’t Voters Giving President Biden Credit for His Student Loan Policies?

A poll done on November 30, 2023, from a Democratic-leaning polling firm looked at two populations: “under 45 without student loans” and “under 45 with student loans.” They asked, “Which candidate do you prefer for President? Biden or Trump?”

The results are shocking. President Biden appears not to be getting much, if any, credit for what he’s done on student loans during his administration.

We’ll cover reasons why that might be the case and what we might see happen going into the 2024 election on student loan policy as a response.

Student loan borrowers in this poll preferred President Trump, with a big asterisk

In the poll cited above, here’s how voters responded:

• Voters under 45 without student loans: Biden (41%) to Trump (32%)
• Voters under 45 with student loans: Trump (34%) to Biden (31%)

This is the exact opposite of what you might expect, as Biden decisively won young student loan borrowers in the 2020 election.

One obvious caveat to point out is that a huge percentage of the poll respondents didn’t answer.

This could be the well-cited “protest vote/enthusiasm gap” that has challenged the Biden re-election campaign.

Only 65% of the voters in the poll chose either Trump or Biden, and the remaining 35% will certainly not all be voting for a third party when they go to their polling precinct.

Still, this result strongly suggests President Biden is not getting significant credit for his student loan policies. Why?

Student loan borrowers don’t vote only on their student debt

In past surveys we’ve done here at Student Loan Planner, voters with large student loans will often cite student debt as their fourth or fifth most important issue.

We’ve seen voters more motivated by their stance on issues like the climate, guns, abortion rights, immigration, taxes, voting rights, racial justice, or military policy.

Hence, if a large number of borrowers, for example, are upset by the administration’s actions on the war in Gaza, that’s more likely to hurt Biden’s approval than his actions on student loans are to help it.

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Some borrowers have gotten enormous relief. Others have gotten very little

Looking at the facts, President Biden has done more on student loans than any other President.

He’s done the following in less than four years:

1. PSLF waiver
2. IDR account adjustment/waiver
3. Small balance borrower cancellation
4. Introduction of the SAVE Plan
5. Disability discharge
6. Borrower defense discharge
7. Student debt cancellation (which didn’t survive the Supreme Court)

President Biden has successfully canceled $138 billion and counting in student debt.

Of course, he would have canceled an additional $400 billion, but the Supreme Court blocked his action.

Why have borrowers not given him more credit for the debt he has canceled?

Look at a program like the IDR waiver.

A borrower who has paid for 25 years on her graduate school loans could consolidate and get her entire balance forgiven tax-free.

This has helped a significant but relatively small group of voters.

In total, 3.9 million people have received cancellation from the executive actions listed above that actually went through.

However, there are approximately 42 million student loan borrowers.

This means that less than 10% of borrowers have received major relief.

Many borrowers are not seeing a change in their economic situation

When President Biden came into office, student loan borrowers did not have to pay anything on their student loans due to President Trump’s pausing of student loan payments and interest during the pandemic, which President Biden extended multiple times.

Hence, while the SAVE plan has allowed a majority of enrolled borrowers to pay $0 a month with zero interest accruing, this is no different than the policy that borrowers had become accustomed to for years.

Borrowers, especially those with smaller balances, might be wondering why President Biden can’t take a different avenue to give relief when he has been able to introduce over two dozen executive actions to freeze or cancel student loans for millions.

Related: New Student Loan Forgiveness Strategy: A Guide for Small-Debt Borrowers

President Biden’s enthusiasm gap on student loan cancellation

In town halls, President Biden wondered aloud whether he could cancel student debt. He also wondered if it was a “giveaway” to the highly educated.

He, of course, came around to the idea and strongly supported his cancellation program. Still, he tried to pass it with a narrow pandemic-related emergency law instead of the broad, wide-reaching Higher Education Act authority that progressives have urged him to pursue.

Voters might look at his late effort to cancel debt with a narrow law as a half-hearted effort at broad cancellation.

For example, some progressives urged him to immediately try again for cancellation via the Higher Education Act after his cancellation program was struck down. He opted to do negotiated rulemaking instead with a far narrower focus.

2022 midterms suggested action on student loans helps (or at least doesn’t hurt)

In races such as the 2022 Georgia Senate election, strong support of student debt cancellation seemed to help Democratic turnout or at least not hurt.

Given a lack of enthusiasm from student loan borrowers heading into the 2024 election, President Biden is incentivized to try and deliver broad relief even if that program ultimately does not survive the courts.

What could be coming next for Biden and student loan relief

The President’s negotiated rulemaking committee recently proposed 17 different reasons the Secretary of Education could use to discharge student loans for borrowers facing hardship.

Some of these reasons already exist, such as disability.

But some of the reasons cited are sweeping and could theoretically result in as much relief as cancellation.

For example, borrowers with large debt-to-income ratios, low incomes, or receipt of public assistance such as nutrition assistance could qualify for relief.

If a sweeping program does get introduced, we very well could see legal challenges, and the ultimate success of such a program might depend on the results of the 2024 election.

Until then, expect broad action on student debt in some capacity as the President seeks to excite younger voters and avoid lower turnout among this critical demographic.